Friday, May 25, 2012

Why the Indiana series will help the Heat win the title

 
After closing out a hard-fought series against the Indiana Pacers in six games, the Miami Heat are poised to make a return visit to the NBA Finals. While the Pacers seemingly had the Heat on the ropes early on in the series, this series (more than any other series in the Eastern Conference) will go a long way towards helping the Heat win this year's championship.

* Note:  In writing this, I do recognize that the Heat still have to defeat either the Celtics or Sixers in the Eastern Conference Finals in order to advance to the NBA Finals. While the outcome of the Eastern Conference Finals is far from decided, I do think that the Heat will be able to advance over either of those teams in no more than five games.

1.  The Pacers are a physical team, similar to the Western Conference teams.

The Pacers showed their physicality throughout the series and had an obvious advantage over the Heat in the frontcourt. Both teams left in the Western Conference will have an advantage over the Heat in the frontcourt and will look to capitalize on that advantage in facing the Heat. The ability for Miami to respond to the physicality of the Pacers and to somewhat nullify the Pacers frontcourt advantage will help to give the Heat a blueprint on how they will face either the Spurs or the Thunder.


2.  Spoelstra discovered a lineup that can cause problems for many teams.

With Bosh going down in Game 1 of the series, Heat coach, Erik Spoelstra was forced to do some tinkering with the lineup. At a variety of times throughout this series, the Heat went with a lineup that included Wade, James, Miller, Battier, and Anthony. While I don't have any numbers to reference, this lineup seemed to be the most effective lineup for the Heat. Offensively, having Miller and Battier to space the floor, allowed more room for Wade and LeBron to post or attack the paint. Defensively this lineup was effective guarding pick-and-rolls and rotating to open shooters, while their length caused problems as well for the Pacers.

When you look forward, this lineup could also cause problems for both Western Conference teams. While the Spurs are a deep team and can employ a variety of lineups, the Thunder can probably match up with that Heat lineup more effectively than the Spurs can. However, if a healthy Chris Bosh can return and replace Anthony in this lineup, his ability to shoot the perimeter jump shot will also create more room for both Wade and James as well.

3.  Wade and LeBron played together the way many Heat fans envisioned they would.

The last three games of this series is essentially what Heat fans have wanted to see since this team came together. While Bosh's injury hurt the Heat initially, I think that it may have helped the Heat in the long run. With Bosh down, LeBron and Wade knew that they had to perform at a high level, and more importantly, perform together at a high level in order for the Heat to advance. After the Heat's, and especially Wade's, terrible performance in Game 3 (5 points and 5 turnovers), Wade and LeBron both put the team on their shoulders and together carried the Heat to the series victory.

In the last three games of the series, Wade had a combined 99 points (33.0 ppg), 22 rebounds (7.3 rpg), and 11 assists (3.7 apg), highlighted by a 41 point, 10 rebound performance in last night's closeout game. LeBron combined for 98 points (32.7 ppg), 34 rebounds (11.3 rpg), and 24 assists (8.0 apg) in those three games, highlighted by a 40 point, 18 rebound, 9 assist performance in Game 4. Game 4 was probably the best game that the two have played since coming together. In addition to LeBron's 40 points, 18 rebounds, and 9 assists, Wade finished with 30 points, 9 rebounds, and 6 assists. Wade finished the series averaging 26.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game, while LeBron averaged 30.0 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game in the series.

I think that the last point is the most telling point of all. If Wade and LeBron can combine for 65-70 points per game moving forward, the Heat will be a hard team to beat. Only OKC has the tandem that would be able to match that type of production. An OKC-Miami matchup in the NBA Finals would be an interesting proposition and one that many NBA fans would look forward to seeing.


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